MOL boss “welcomes” recession
THE president of Japanese shipping group Mitsui OSK Lines, Akimitsu Ashida, has warned in his New Year address to his company that the downturn in the shipping industry could last two years. However he stresses that there will be positive aspects to a recession.
He notes that when he became president in 2004 MOL's financial position was “rather fragile”. Thanks to the favourable shipping market continued until the middle of last year, MOL Group made about US$10 in aggregate profit during the past four and a half years. He says: “Now, our consolidated shareholders' equity has reached 750 billion yen (about US$7.5 billion) and the gearing ratio has been improved to 0.8 times.”
Noting the world economic climate has been changing drastically, he says: “ In the shipping market as well, although the dry bulk market may rebound to some extent, we need to be ready for the difficult time for about two years before the recovery of healthy market level.”
Mr Ashida counsels that this is a good time to remember a “wise saying” of Panasonic Group founder Konosuke Matsushita: "Boom is welcome. Recession is more welcome." Mr Ashida said: “This can be construed as follows: For the shipping industry, recession can be positively understood as a process to adjust current and future over-tonnage situation. And, for a respective company, recession makes its weakness apparent, which is invisible under normal circumstance, and leads to the next rapid progress if proper efforts rendered to overcome such weakness. Looking around the current circumstances, I realise that this is an exactly apt remark containing full of meaning.
He expanded: “Let me explain this a little further. It seems that there has been a series of news which sounds unfavourable for the shipping industry like that 'the rapid slowdown of world economy and the serious depression in the developed countries have a negative impact on the seaborne trade'. However, if we think calmly, the news is not all bad. Looking at demand and supply of tonnage, the over-tonnage anticipated in the near future may be prevented from happening, considering such news like that 'Chinese and Korean shipbuilding facilities which had been planning for rapid expansion are now squeezed by the financial crisis and credit crunch' and that 'many of the vessels on order have been and will be cancelled before their delivery'. If the market had dropped one or two years later, the massive volume of new vessels would have been delivered. It is not too much to say that this is an act of providence.”
“In addition,” he said, “the scrapping of aged vessels, which has been used longer than their original plan under that very strong market, will be accelerated due to the recent market deterioration. These movements will reasonably and favourably contribute to adjust demand and supply balance of world tonnage. What's more, we will have more possibility in reducing overall costs especially in maintenance and repairs, bunkers and lubricants, the price of which went up sharply due to the hike of material and crude oil prices for some years. We can also expect other issues such as shortage of seafarers and repair docks to be eased in line with the adjustment of shipping market.”