Backcasting Gains Traction in Shipping as ONE Looks 24 Years Ahead to Guide Investment Strategy

## Backcasting Enters the Shipping Mainstream A planning methodology long favoured by governments and international organisations is finding a growing audience in the shipping industry, with Japanese liner giant Ocean Network Express (ONE) among the latest operators to embrace backcasting as a core strategic tool. According to Splash247, ONE is projecting 24 years into the future to help determine where capital should be allocated today — a marked departure from the conventional forecasting models that have traditionally guided investment decisions across the maritime sector. ### What Is Backcasting? Unlike traditional forecasting, which extrapolates current trends forward to predict likely outcomes, backcasting works in reverse. Planners begin by defining a desired future state — such as a fully decarbonised fleet or a net-zero supply chain — and then work backwards to identify the policy decisions, investments, and operational changes required to reach that goal. The technique has been widely used by bodies such as the International Energy Agency (IEA) and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), as well as national governments mapping pathways to climate targets. Its adoption by a major liner operator signals a maturation in how the shipping industry is approaching the energy transition. ### Why It Matters for Shipping The shipping industry faces an unusually complex investment environment. Vessels ordered today will still be operating in the 2040s and beyond, meaning decisions made now about propulsion technology, fuel type, and fleet composition carry multi-decade consequences. With the International Maritime Organization (IMO) targeting net-zero greenhouse gas emissions from international shipping by or around 2050, operators are under pressure to make capital commitments in the absence of clear regulatory certainty or a dominant alternative fuel. In this context, backcasting offers a structured framework for navigating uncertainty — anchoring decisions to a defined end-state rather than attempting to predict which of several possible futures will materialise. ### A Spreading Trend ONE's adoption of the methodology is not an isolated case. Splash247 reports that backcasting is spreading through the shipping industry more broadly, as owners, operators, and financiers seek more robust tools for long-range planning in an era defined by the energy transition, geopolitical volatility, and shifting trade patterns. The trend reflects a wider recognition that the shipping sector's traditional reliance on cyclical market forecasting may be insufficient for the structural challenges ahead. As decarbonisation timelines become more concrete and regulatory frameworks tighten, the ability to plan from a defined future endpoint may prove a meaningful competitive advantage. For an industry accustomed to thinking in five-year cycles, a 24-year planning horizon represents a significant cultural shift — one that ONE's move may help to normalise across the sector.