Hormuz Disruptions Set to Keep Global LNG Trade Flat in 2026, Shell Warns

## Hormuz Disruptions Set to Keep Global LNG Trade Flat in 2026, Shell Warns Global liquefied natural gas trade could remain flat this year if shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz persist for another three months, energy giant Shell warned on Tuesday, according to reporting by gCaptain. The caution comes as the ongoing Iran conflict continues to cast a shadow over one of the world's most strategically critical maritime chokepoints. The Strait of Hormuz handles a significant share of global LNG and crude oil flows, and any sustained disruption to vessel transits carries far-reaching consequences for energy markets worldwide. Shell indicated that a return to normal traffic flows within the next three months would be necessary to prevent a meaningful contraction in annual LNG trade volumes. Should disruptions extend beyond that window, the cumulative impact on cargo movements and supply chain reliability could weigh heavily on global energy balances for the remainder of the year. Despite the near-term headwinds, Shell struck a more optimistic tone on the medium- and long-term outlook. The company expects LNG trade growth to resume in 2027 as new liquefaction capacity comes online and demand centres — particularly across Asia — continue to expand their reliance on natural gas as a transition fuel. Looking further ahead, Shell projected that global LNG demand will rise sharply by 2050, underpinned by decarbonisation efforts, coal-to-gas switching in developing economies, and the growing role of LNG as a marine fuel. The forecast aligns with broader industry consensus that natural gas will remain a cornerstone of the global energy mix well into the second half of the century. For the shipping sector, the Hormuz situation serves as a stark reminder of the vulnerability of critical maritime corridors to geopolitical instability. Tanker operators, LNG carriers, and cargo insurers have all been monitoring the situation closely, with some vessels already opting for longer alternative routing to avoid exposure to the strait. Market participants will be watching closely for any diplomatic developments or de-escalation signals that could restore confidence in Hormuz transits. In the meantime, freight rates and LNG spot prices are likely to remain sensitive to news flow from the region. *Source: gCaptain*