Voluntary Carbon Market Set to Exceed USD 7 Billion by 2031, Presenting Opportunities for Maritime Decarbonisation

## Voluntary Carbon Market Poised for Significant Growth Through 2031 The voluntary carbon market is on course to reach USD 7.06 billion by 2031, according to a newly published report by Mordor Intelligence, as demand for carbon offsetting instruments continues to accelerate across carbon-intensive industries — including international shipping. The research firm's comprehensive market assessment reveals that spot transactions dominated activity in 2026, accounting for 53.61% of total market volume. This preference for spot-based carbon credit purchases reflects the evolving strategies of companies seeking flexible, near-term compliance tools as regulatory and stakeholder pressure on emissions intensifies. ### Relevance to the Maritime Sector For the shipping industry, the growth of the voluntary carbon market arrives at a critical juncture. With the International Maritime Organization's (IMO) revised greenhouse gas strategy targeting net-zero emissions by or around 2050, and the European Union's Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) now encompassing maritime transport, shipowners and operators are increasingly exploring voluntary carbon credits as a complementary tool alongside investments in alternative fuels and energy efficiency measures. Voluntary carbon markets allow companies to offset residual emissions that cannot yet be eliminated through operational or technological means. As the cost and availability of green fuels such as green methanol, ammonia, and liquefied hydrogen remain challenging, carbon credits offer a transitional mechanism for carriers committed to science-based targets. ### Market Dynamics and Competitive Landscape According to Mordor Intelligence, the market's growth is being driven by a combination of corporate net-zero pledges, expanding regulatory frameworks, and increasing investor scrutiny of environmental, social, and governance (ESG) performance. The dominance of spot transactions suggests that many buyers are still in the early stages of developing long-term carbon procurement strategies, though forward contract activity is expected to grow as market maturity increases. The report also highlights a competitive and evolving landscape among carbon credit registries, project developers, and brokers — a space that maritime stakeholders will need to navigate carefully to ensure credit quality and avoid reputational risks associated with low-integrity offsets. ### Looking Ahead As the IMO's Carbon Intensity Indicator (CII) regulations tighten annual ratings requirements and the FuelEU Maritime regulation approaches full implementation, the intersection of compliance carbon markets and voluntary mechanisms will become increasingly complex for fleet operators to manage. Industry analysts recommend that shipping companies begin developing structured carbon procurement strategies now, rather than relying on ad hoc spot purchases, to secure quality credits at competitive prices ahead of anticipated demand surges later in the decade. *Source: Mordor Intelligence, July 2026.*